CongressDailyAM
By Erin McPike
April 22, 2008

 

The Democratic presidential battle between Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has brought many new voters to the party and given Pennsylvania a meaningful role in a presidential primary for the first time in 24 years, but the state could end up being a rare bright spot for the GOP.

 

Not only has the Keystone State been a bane to Obama's presidential campaign for the drawn out negative narrative it has set up between the last two standing contenders in the party's primary, but it has also produced some situations down the ballot at odds with the rest of the national map.

 

"Pennsylvania has produced a number of Republican recruitment successes," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain said. "Some of our best pick-up opportunities are there." He identified the 10th District of freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Carney as perhaps one of the GOP's best hopes to flip.

 

But it is not just Carney that Democrats have to defend.

 

Freshman Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire and Patrick Murphy both face serious challengers in former Republican Rep. Melissa Hart and businessman Tom Manion, respectively. Several Republicans emphasized that Hart was not interested in negative campaigning last cycle but has been quick to hit Altmire this cycle. Manion has proved to be something of a star fundraiser and posted more than $400,000 raised in the first quarter.

 

Republicans are also eyeing Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski's 11th District and believe they have a strong candidate in Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who has yet to prove a strong fundraising ability.

 

But if Democrats are worried, they aren't showing it.

 

"In 2006 Democrats picked up four seats in Pennsylvania alone," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Carrie James. "With 350,000 new Democratic voters, a tarnished Republican brand and entrenched Republican incumbents who have to support President Bush's failed record, the scale is tipped our way in Pennsylvania."

Pennsylvania Democratic Party acting executive director Abe Amoros said he is confident all of the freshman Democrats will be saved, thanks in part to the statewide registration advantage.

 

And they have some pickup targets of their own, including GOP Reps. Jim Gerlach and Phil English. But Democratic operatives have not spent much time pumping up their candidates in either district, and Republicans contend Democrats suffered recruiting failures in both cases. Democrat Lois Murphy will not be returning to face Gerlach, and Democrats have a four-way primary for the chance to oppose English.

 

In what might be the biggest House race in the state, Carney learns in today's congressional primary which wealthy businessman he will face in the fall. Republicans Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser each spent enough of their own funds to trigger the Millionaires' Amendment, and Democrats have been suggesting they have been embroiled in a fairly bruising fight to the nomination.

 

A Republican operative, however, suggested that the primary will prove beneficial to the victor because neither has ever run for elective office and will be more prepared for the general election.

 

While the Republicans have been battling for the nomination, Carney has been busy raising money. He reported just under $1 million on hand at the end of March, out of $1.3 million he has received. While the Democrats have gained in statewide registration, in part because of Obama's candidacy, the Pennsylvania Republican Party maintains that the GOP has a registration advantage in Carney's district.

 

Registration defections from the GOP to the Democratic Party and new voters who have signed up during the presidential race might provide a cushion for Democratic operatives. And Barley conceded that with Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell in office, the Democratic operation does have a big statewide advantage.

 

But Barley also suspects that a number of the party switchers made the move simply to have a say in the primary contest, since Sen. John McCain of Arizona has an unencumbered path to the GOP nomination.

 

"We are going to contact each and every one" through mailings and other means, Barley said, "and we're going to get them to switch back."

This article originally appeared at the following link:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdaily/cda_20080422_9352.php